tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post4120302007007625878..comments2023-11-28T09:02:03.742+01:00Comments on The Seneca Effect: Before the Collapse: a ReviewUgo Bardihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-56642365870889389312022-12-28T13:29:21.067+01:002022-12-28T13:29:21.067+01:00Adding this book to my "must read" list....Adding this book to my "must read" list. (the list, unfortunately keeps growing, as I add to it much faster than I actually read them)<br />I have been trying to get an understanding of complexity and chaos for some years now, but with limited success. The understanding I have is brittle. This book sounds as though it may provide some insight to my scaffolding of facts. <br />I am grateful that people, such as yourself Prof. Bardi, write books on graduate level subjects in a manner that a reader, without a background in a given specialty, can gain an access to it.Wornsmoothhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14672822707973637317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-46110113960001409652022-12-14T10:40:19.849+01:002022-12-14T10:40:19.849+01:00Can we expect a french translation and edition of ...Can we expect a french translation and edition of your book one day ? I hope as soon as possible ! At least the Google traduction tool allow me to read and enjoy your blog ;)<br />BrgdsFeda Negrenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-7241650247957276182022-12-13T00:30:44.061+01:002022-12-13T00:30:44.061+01:00Thanks for all the replies, but I like Ugo's b...Thanks for all the replies, but I like Ugo's best. I add to his considerations that a vegan diet dramatically reduces fertility and the viability of the vegan children. I do agree with all the other curves, we are now seeing in my native Italy a 10-20% crop reduction in Pianura Padana in 2022, and everyone with a company is closing due to the energy costs (ceramics for example). Pollution will still increase as we go through our lignite stocks, but going forward the population curve will be different from LTG, specifically peaking earlier, peaking lower, and possibly declining more slowly. I think peak population will arrive this decade, perhaps as early as 2023 or 2024.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-11247778021411951582022-12-12T02:48:06.098+01:002022-12-12T02:48:06.098+01:00Well the four horsemen often ride together; war an...Well the four horsemen often ride together; war and violence destroy farms and labor, that leads to poverty and famine, decline in births, and poor immune sytems that fail when the next sickness comes, etc. But sometimes they switch up the order of appearance. <br />The pale rider is not just the face of an individual's death, it is also the face of the births rate and deaths rate of the tribe/village/nation telling the story. ArtDeco Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-17435562456765212522022-12-11T22:45:37.738+01:002022-12-11T22:45:37.738+01:00It is because they ran the demographic transition ...It is because they ran the demographic transition in reverse. They assumed that the relation between wealth and fertility observed upon going "up" held on going down. So, the model was prediction a fertility increase with wealth decrease. It doesn't work this way and more recent versions of the model have corrected this section. Now, population starts going down soon after the peak productivity. And even that may be too optimistic!<br />Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-3809571966172705042022-12-11T19:13:07.754+01:002022-12-11T19:13:07.754+01:00Probably a kind of inertia. You can stay alive for...Probably a kind of inertia. You can stay alive for a while even if you are underfeeded. A lot of people managed to survive during the last world war, even in detention camps. I can report for sure my grandfather (italian) managed to come back from Russia (actually he was in the Donbass zone, eighty years ago). When he could get home he was 21 years old and only 60 pounds in weight. He died many years later, at the age of 53 by a heart attack, surely uncorrelated to the defeat and the war events of his youth, far beyond the fourteen days limit! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-54524389578287443112022-12-11T13:04:59.334+01:002022-12-11T13:04:59.334+01:00Perhaps the most important thing I do not understa...Perhaps the most important thing I do not understand about the LTG model is why the population keeps increasing after the per capita food starts decreasing. Food starts decreasing in 2023, but the model says the population will increase for another 27 years.Are we talking about the world going vegan, and chicken and pig feed being re-directed? Ugo?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-46912918223643185312022-12-09T22:49:04.656+01:002022-12-09T22:49:04.656+01:00"we must fund more research (p. 178)"......"<b><i>we must fund more research (p. 178)</i></b>"....<br /><br /><b>Stop thinking in "<i>we must...</i>"</b> - as making the tempo of Life synchronised centrally worldwide - proved disastrous for humanity at large...<br /><br /><b>Stop thinking "<i>we must...</i>"</b> - as an <i>American</i> thinks for Iraqis and an <i>Iraqi</i> thinks for Italians - proved catastrophic for all of us...<br /><br /><b>Stop thinking "<i>we must...</i>"</b> - as that proved a huge energy-sink - for nothing...<br /><br /><b>Stop saying "<i>we must...</i>"</b> - as that <b><i>We</i></b> proved no more than a cheap product of finite fossil fuels going in vain - looted... <br /><br /><b>Stop saying "<i>we must...</i>"</b> - as all missions for <i>modelling</i> the world proved no less than a quest to kill the natural future for all nations...<br /><br /><b>Stop saying "<i>we must...</i>"</b> - time for the UN to be resolved - no matter how it stands today tall...<br /><br /><b>Say instead:</b><br /><br />"<a href="https://the-fifth-law.com/pages/press-release?ugo=https://www.senecaeffect.com/2022/12/before-collapse-review.html" rel="nofollow">Energy, like time, flows from past to future</a>"<br /><br />Wailing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-858611667930578412022-12-09T20:35:12.111+01:002022-12-09T20:35:12.111+01:00If equations do not describe the system adequately...If equations do not describe the system adequately, neural networks most certainly can. I have to wonder if someone is not already doing it. No doubt to predict when to exit the market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-51957982885632974852022-12-09T14:07:16.946+01:002022-12-09T14:07:16.946+01:00What a good review! How nice to see reviewers that...What a good review! How nice to see reviewers that have actually read the book.<br /><br />Maybe it's too good ... people will feel they now don't need to buy it?P Bakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03951229588424591400noreply@blogger.com