tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post7144545576455223716..comments2023-11-28T09:02:03.742+01:00Comments on The Seneca Effect: Climate Change: What is the Worst that can Happen?Ugo Bardihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-49831885833806595772021-08-31T18:50:59.635+02:002021-08-31T18:50:59.635+02:00Hot house extinctions, mass & lesser, are the ...Hot house extinctions, mass & lesser, are the norm as far as extinctions on this planet go.<br /><br />There's recent evidence for a 6th mass extinction & it's a hot house mass extinction just like the other 5, including the KT (dinosaurs) - sorry clinging highly emotional Alvarez-asteroid obsessed fanboys.<br /><br /><b>Discovery of a new mass extinction<br />Press release issued: 17 September 2020</b><br /><br />"The cause was most likely massive volcanic eruptions in the Wrangellia Province of western Canada, where huge volumes of volcanic basalt was poured out and forms much of the western coast of North America.<br /><br />“The eruptions peaked in the Carnian,” says Jacopo Dal Corso. “I was studying the geochemical signature of the eruptions a few years ago and identified some massive effects on the atmosphere worldwide. The eruptions were so huge, they pumped vast amounts of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, and there were spikes of global warming”.<br /><br />The warming was associated with increased rainfall, and this had been detected back in the 1980s by geologists Mike Simms and Alastair Ruffell as a humid episode lasting about 1 million years in all. The climate change caused major biodiversity loss in the ocean and on land, but just after the extinction event new groups took over, forming more modern-like ecosystems. The shifts in climate encouraged growth of plant life, and the expansion of modern conifer forests."<br /><br />https://www.bristol.ac.uk/biology/news/2020/discovery-of-a-new-mass-extinction.html<br /><br />Sound familiar?<br /><br />The only significant difference I can see is previous mass extinctions were not preceded by a rapacious talking ape wiping out tons of habitat before the big hot kicks in. The humans have already done half the work, climate not included. I guess you can say the trigger is different/unique too. That rapacious talking ape digging up all that carbon & burning it as opposed to the standard volcanism (LIP) for all the others. The physics, chemistry & end result are basically the same. I'll wager the humans will be gone before this century is through.<br /><br />There's a number of biology professionals, like Bill Rees, who claim habitat loss & other non climate pressures are an existential threat in their own right, yet have gone largely ignored.<br /><br /><b>What, Me Worry? Humans Are Blind to Imminent Environmental Collapse<br />Accelerating biodiversity loss may turn out to be the sleeper issue of the century.</b><br /><br />"A curious thing about H. sapiens is that we are clever enough to document — in exquisite detail — various trends that portend the collapse of modern civilization, yet not nearly smart enough to extricate ourselves from our self-induced predicament."<br /><br />https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/11/16/humans-blind-imminent-environmental-collapse/<br /><br />Climate is but one of a number of very dangerous predicaments humans must suffer including how humans behave under pressure when there is little to no hope.moresomahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00289740244866738586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-91239581473969248872021-08-29T11:32:03.249+02:002021-08-29T11:32:03.249+02:00And there also may be increased violence at a loca...And there also may be increased violence at a local level (crime).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00640380551089609286noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-8468409992471971072021-08-28T00:54:29.266+02:002021-08-28T00:54:29.266+02:00Ugo, interesting post I can only concur we will do...Ugo, interesting post I can only concur we will do little and nothing much! One looks wistfully at the Limits To Growth Graphs to see where we are, not predicitive but certainly informative, we are well and truly at a point where the are rising and falling factors, a bit like a small boat in a crossed sea. <br /><br />I think Agriculture and the Environmental damage (alteration) is going to be the one. Plant reproduction (seed viability) drops off markedly as temperature rises (There is good analysis of this about the net) and it is a very small range, so heat neuters all biological things excepting a few better adapated. Most of what we rely upon for food is capable of being produced in a temperate range so GAIA very hot is very intemperate indeed. Not sure cacti soup or rodent stew will be too palatable if you like your onions or tomatoes. Our fertility will plummet as well. However the rapidity of all this is the sledgehammer, previous periods took many many millions of years to happen, biological beings had time to adapt or perish. We are so compressing the time it will leave a a very depeleted and sterilised world around, arid in most parts - suffocatingly tropical in others. As for water sure there will be plenty, held in the atmosphere as water vapour or in the oceans with salt but for us not much at all. That seems to be the more likely end excursion. It is going to be a very traumatic journey into the future for us little mammals!MIke Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03299829800787294228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-88661348995281321172021-08-27T20:18:57.675+02:002021-08-27T20:18:57.675+02:00Most interesting. Me, à layman, unserstood that so...Most interesting. Me, à layman, unserstood that some time ago. What could be the human population post this present era?, Thibaudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01191632800045988554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-40205354205164196732021-08-25T21:49:22.525+02:002021-08-25T21:49:22.525+02:00Hello Professor Bardi,
As always a thoughtful well...Hello Professor Bardi,<br />As always a thoughtful well formulated essay. Thank you.<br />I do have some disagreement on your above comment about war. After collapse, I agree that the survivors won't have time, energy, or resources to wage anything but local short term clashes.<br /> It is the period leading up to collapse during which I believe we are most at risk. People want to keep what they have, and that includes whatever is their current material standard of living. As the World unravels many will rally behind a leadership that promises them that "they" will protect their way of life from all those external threats. ("the other" that also wants food, resources etc, but must be denied it so whomever the chosen ones are can have it, be it akin to Manifest Destiny, Lebensraum, or a gated community on a national level) A wounded society and culture is similar to a wounded, cornered animal. It will display a ferocity and aggression that would be well outside normal behavior.<br />This is why my greatest short term fear is nuclear war with associated nuclear winter....a possible extinction event.<br /> It may eventually come down to<br />1. how much is there?<br />2. Who gets what?<br />3. How do we retain our Humanity? Will we be able to? <br /> Wornsmoothhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14672822707973637317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-82287493690544553172021-08-25T12:18:29.957+02:002021-08-25T12:18:29.957+02:00previous papers I have seen indicate some points;
...previous papers I have seen indicate some points;<br />1. 1000ppm CO2 , plus methane+nitrous oxide + others would give a CO2 equivalent above the level where current modelling indicates equatorial cloud cover would dissipate and something like 18 degrees of global warming results at equilibrium, The equatorial region would be unliveable and also large parts of temperate regions would also be unliveable. <br />2. Plant leaves and seeds evolve to become <br />more toxic at elevated CO2 levels, I imagine edible crop yield would be severely diminished.<br />3. Sea level rise is accelerating, current rate is closer to 5 or 6 mm. another 100mm slr by 2030 and more than a metre by 2050 is quite pausible. SLR on its own could be very disruptive soon.<br />4. coextinctions play a dominant role in ecosystem collapse and appear much earlier than human intuition indicates.<br />5. putting tipping points together suggests large scale and stable agriculture can't exist, human population must collapse and very fast. the next question is where do all the human bodies go? then, is it plausible that any liferaft population can survive until more stable conditions arise.<br /><br />crybabyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08886096720023313685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-40841474795466152562021-08-25T10:43:56.108+02:002021-08-25T10:43:56.108+02:00Black fuel market in Lebanon - where people push ...<a href="https://youtu.be/3RwFVg0HEQg?t=109" rel="nofollow">Black fuel market in Lebanon </a> - where people push shell-cars, that don't have even engines, to petrol stations, just to get a batch of fuel that they then sell on the black market for profit of few bucks. The narrative that <b>no Peak Oil will never happen because of Price</b> - might have been no more than another intended ambiguity over what Energy really is - all along.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-72739053622825669832021-08-25T10:15:01.710+02:002021-08-25T10:15:01.710+02:00Climate Change has 'crowded out'* an under...<b>Climate Change has 'crowded out'* an understanding of Energy for the Commence - Globally. A full understanding of Energy meant adding the <i>Right for Humans to Understand What Energy Really Is</i> to An Overhauled, Badly Needed and Now Long Pending Magna Carta**</b><br /><br />The concept for - then - the revolutionary 2008-published mindset <a href="https://energyskeptic.com/2021/peak-oil-its-the-flows-stupid/?https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2021/08/climate-change-what-is-worst-that-can.html" rel="nofollow">“It’s the flows, stupid!”</a> - hase long superseded - the problem is actually much more deeper and universal***.<br /><br />Today, we understand that without deforesting Europe and America after the 1500s, early mass British and America coal, Pennsylvania, Texas, Baku and Masjed Soleyman oil - Ghawar's oil wouldn't have come online.<br /><br />Unless humans find tomorrow many-folds bigger than Ghawar - talking about more oil, coal and gas is pointless.<br /><br />When an oil field peaks, it means it no longer contributes freshly to even its own production - It becomes 100% parasitic to past energies.<br /><br />Texas oil has built the Hoover Dam, an industrial base for Ghawar and countless other mega projects - as far as Europe and beyond. Shale oil and gas, in contrast, have destroyed countless roads and urban infrastructures. <br /><br />Alaska oil needed massive new infrastructure built before it even started to produce. <br /><br />Obsolete, massive steel structures coming from North Sea oil fields into onshore junkyards - are keeping pouring, non-stop. What animates the process is Energy drawn from all over the world.<br /><br />This far, all oil fields found and produced after Ghawar were actually a sub product of Ghawar and the earlier energy supplies kept coming into its operation later - including Chinese coal, Iraqi oil, etc.<br /><br /><b>If an oil field found today smaller than the original Ghawar, it would be a waste of Energy extracting it.</b><br /><br />"<a href="https://the-fifth-law.com/pages/press-release?ugo=2021/08/climate-change-what-is-worst-that-can.html" rel="nofollow">Energy, like time, flows from past to future</a>".<br /><br /><b>But who says the Commons around the world are really interested in knowing and understanding all of this jargon - Peak Oil and What Energy Really Is?</b><br /><br />True.<br /><br />Manufacturing <a href="https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2021/08/human-stupidity-explained-our-paper-on.html?ugo=comment" rel="nofollow">mass Stupidity</a>, burning finite fossil fuels to the last drop in the process, demonstrates that <i>the Manufacturer</i> and the masses are equally stupid - they are humans.<br /><br />The masses are slightly more intelligent, though, as they get some priceless fossil fuel supplies, practically for free, in the relationship. <br /><br />They survive, re-produce and continue, the <i>Manufacturer and finite fossil fuel reserves diminish</i> over time.<br /><br />Wailing.<br /><br /><b>*</b> '<i>Crowded Out</i>' is the expression I first read in a comment about Climate Change on <a href="https://energyskeptic.com/?https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2021/08/climate-change-what-is-worst-that-can.html" rel="nofollow">https://energyskeptic.com</a><br /><br /><b>** </b>Dmitry Orlov believes Peak Oil is given today the status of Medical Problem, too (<a href="https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-348-revisiting-reinventing-collapse-with-dmitry-orlov/?https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2021/08/climate-change-what-is-worst-that-can.html" rel="nofollow">link to the interview by JHK - at 45:30</a>).<br /><br /><b>***</b> "<a href="https://the-fifth-law.com/pages/press-release?ugo2=Climate" rel="nofollow">No Energy store holds enough Energy</a> to extract, collect and utilise an amount of Energy equal to the total Energy it stores".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-58272679334773823452021-08-24T12:12:01.658+02:002021-08-24T12:12:01.658+02:00As I wrote, Gaia knows best!As I wrote, Gaia knows best!Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-53897588090399941812021-08-24T09:58:32.536+02:002021-08-24T09:58:32.536+02:00I recently discussed with my son(yes i got too lat...I recently discussed with my son(yes i got too late to vasectomy) maybe the Amazonian Mycelium that is making clouds to bring rain to the woods as a part of the biotic pump are a sign of intelligence. Also the plankton with its snort(DMS) also are able to brightening clouds to protect them from too much sunlight and many other for us not so clear ecological interconnections, underline the Gaia hypothesis. Maybe we live on a planet that exactly knows what is going on and is manipulating us? Like the planet Stanislav Lem described in Solaris? Who knows.peakaustriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16973243879593519474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-58002781288490623032021-08-24T09:00:31.169+02:002021-08-24T09:00:31.169+02:00What is interesting in your description is that mo...What is interesting in your description is that most of these factors are linked. Rising sea levels can lead to a salinization of asian deltas, which are major rice production areas. Droughts due to climate change have impacted crops in recent years (in Canada this year). Agriculture as it is done in developed countries depends on fertilization, irrigation, pesticides and plowing, but these are the very factors that have been destroying soil since the beginnings of agriculture. We need to start doing things in a different way, either to dampen the fall, or to become more resilient and adapt more easily to new conditions. In this regard, what do you think of the drawdown project? (https://drawdown.org/)Kilroynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-57177820901530397852021-08-24T06:28:03.666+02:002021-08-24T06:28:03.666+02:00Hello again Ugo. And hello Doc Hall.
Actually the...Hello again Ugo. And hello Doc Hall. <br />Actually there is a quite strong link between diseases that jump from animals to humans and climate change (ticks, mosquitoes, birds, and now bats.)<br />And another rather strong link from climate change to organized violence (the war in Syria, the water wars of the American Wild west, the African genocides,etc.).<br />We have added AI and robotics to the stew only recently, but plastics and petroleum products like pesticides didn't exist in enough quantities to matter only a century ago. <br />We do things more quickly today. A formula that includes both Moore's and Murphy's laws ... Art Decohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12955243137081184262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-11161346303956582672021-08-23T23:42:27.120+02:002021-08-23T23:42:27.120+02:00Alas, before going to paradise, you have to die!Alas, before going to paradise, you have to die!Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-11148981227658051262021-08-23T23:13:06.707+02:002021-08-23T23:13:06.707+02:00A musical moment... https://www.youtube.com/watch?...A musical moment... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfZVu0alU0I ... " Eve of Destruction" is a protest song written by P. F. Sloan in mid-1964stevelaudig@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08728229684840209991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-51963736431101297222021-08-23T22:19:23.373+02:002021-08-23T22:19:23.373+02:00Ya sé que usted ha remarcado que sus puntos eran p...Ya sé que usted ha remarcado que sus puntos eran posibilidades y no predicciones. Pero leyendo, da la sensación que con unas condiciones semejantes al Eoceno, estaríamos en el "paraíso terrenal".Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04008883922013946438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-2974256962677369042021-08-23T22:05:23.240+02:002021-08-23T22:05:23.240+02:00Luisella, è implicito nel punto dove parlo di coll...Luisella, è implicito nel punto dove parlo di collasso agricoloUgo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-3267372567923207272021-08-23T22:04:58.399+02:002021-08-23T22:04:58.399+02:00Thierry, allow me to disagree. Wars are like hurri...Thierry, allow me to disagree. Wars are like hurricanes, they need resources to come to life. Without food, people have no force to make war. Not that there won't be wars anymore, but, in the past, periods of decline have been associated with fewer wars.<br />Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-52910308553354894422021-08-23T18:34:24.544+02:002021-08-23T18:34:24.544+02:00Sorry but war can be a direct consequence of clima...Sorry but war can be a direct consequence of climate change with the collapse of agriculture, famines have always been triggers of war in the past Thierry Bischhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17422474944095178626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-53929526528518639092021-08-23T18:28:07.444+02:002021-08-23T18:28:07.444+02:00Non hai esaminato il possibile effetto di un blocc...Non hai esaminato il possibile effetto di un blocco della corrente del golfo, a seguito dello scioglimento dei ghiacci... .<br />luisella chiavenutohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12261037454196278440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-2228716893494843312021-08-23T05:48:19.445+02:002021-08-23T05:48:19.445+02:00Note that I added a 7th point about rather unlikel...Note that I added a 7th point about rather unlikely (perhaps) scenarios. BTW, interesting site, yours!Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-43106152462969071062021-08-23T05:24:53.009+02:002021-08-23T05:24:53.009+02:00In may view, disease is part of the agricultural c...In may view, disease is part of the agricultural collapse. Wars, yes, but they are not a consequence of climate change. If things get really bad, I think people will have neither the resources nor the inclination to make new wars. Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-84665969043491048652021-08-23T05:21:57.246+02:002021-08-23T05:21:57.246+02:00Six avenues of destruction are outlined. What abou...Six avenues of destruction are outlined. What about two others, straight from the ancient four horsemen of the apocalypse: disease and war? Are humans able to adapt fast enough? doc@compression.orgDoc Hallhttp://www.compression.orgnoreply@blogger.com