tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post9009015830035974399..comments2023-11-28T09:02:03.742+01:00Comments on The Seneca Effect: The Worst Model in History: How the Curve was not Flattened Ugo Bardihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-27469781227226700692023-03-30T18:21:32.418+02:002023-03-30T18:21:32.418+02:00They were drawn by hand by people who had no idea ...They were drawn by hand by people who had no idea of what they were doing. If you use the model, though, the area of the flattened curve should be somewhat smaller than that of the "original" curveUgo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-65296955540870480002023-03-30T18:18:39.643+02:002023-03-30T18:18:39.643+02:00Some of the flattened curve diagrams look like the...Some of the flattened curve diagrams look like the total area under the curve is greater than the original curve.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-50996332127033426222023-03-30T02:21:09.899+02:002023-03-30T02:21:09.899+02:00Is Zelensky wanting to meet Xi Jinping the next fl...Is Zelensky wanting to meet Xi Jinping the next flatting of the curve?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-39097760990416416892023-03-29T17:37:50.135+02:002023-03-29T17:37:50.135+02:00I see no real resource issues yet, at least taking...I see no real resource issues yet, at least taking global view instead of looking only at Italy/other-western-nation. Try to take more international view. Steel output of India, as an example. 68.3 million tonnes in 2010, 124.45 million in 2022. This is no doubling of output, but close.liberty90https://www.blogger.com/profile/10820552619769307434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-80831609965535528332023-03-29T06:53:50.956+02:002023-03-29T06:53:50.956+02:00The new practice of War, in tanks or syringes - no...<b>The new practice of War, in tanks or syringes - now fossil fuel reserves are depleting to the ground - seems about - one doesn't know who is fighting who, what is fought against and what is really going on</b>...<br /><br />"<b>"It’s all lies!" | Was Putin, Or His "Body Double", Heckled During Visit To Occupied Ukraine City?</b>" <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkaDVD7c8A4" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkaDVD7c8A4</a><br /><br />Could it be that what's going on is simply a global <a href="https://the-fifth-law.com/pages/the-peak-oil-musical-chairs%E2%84%A2-calculator?ugo=https://www.senecaeffect.com/2023/03/the-worst-model-in-history-why-curve.html" rel="nofollow"><b>Energy Musical Chairs Game</b></a>?<br /><br />"In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most.<br />No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores. <br />No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.<br />This universal truth applies to all systems.<br /><br /><a href="https://the-fifth-law.com/pages/press-release?ugo=https://www.senecaeffect.com/2023/03/the-worst-model-in-history-why-curve.html" rel="nofollow">Energy, like time, flows from past to future</a>".<br /><br />Wailing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-64700543925757518502023-03-28T18:09:03.673+02:002023-03-28T18:09:03.673+02:00Hello kind philosopher. I see you still tend the f...Hello kind philosopher. I see you still tend the fire. From one come out from the cold and forlorn waste its warmth is a comfort and its light is a beacon.<br />Bertrand Russel<br />“I should like to say two things, one intellectual and one moral. The intellectual thing I should want to say is this: When you are studying any matter, or considering any philosophy, ask yourself only what are the facts and what is the truth that the facts bear out. Never let yourself be diverted either by what you wish to believe, or by what you think would have beneficent social effects if it were believed. But look only, and solely, at what are the facts. That is the intellectual thing that I should wish to say. <br /><br />The moral thing I should wish to say… I should say love is wise, hatred is foolish. In this world which is getting more closely and closely interconnected we have to learn to tolerate each other, we have to learn to put up with the fact that some people say things that we don’t like. We can only live together in that way and if we are to live together and not die together we must learn a kind of charity and a kind of tolerance which is absolutely vital to the continuation of human life on this planet.”<br />Bob Marley<br />"Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery<br />None but ourselves can free our minds<br />Have no fear for atomic energy<br />'Cause none of them can stop the time<br />How long shall they kill our prophets<br />While we stand aside and look? Ooh<br />Some say it's just a part of it<br />We've got to fullfil the book<br />Won't you help to sing<br />These songs of freedom?<br />'Cause all I ever have<br />Redemption songs<br />Redemption songs<br />Redemption songs"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-55416377614998671782023-03-28T17:08:45.498+02:002023-03-28T17:08:45.498+02:00Hi Dave,
https://www.senecaeffect.com/2021/07/clim...Hi Dave,<br />https://www.senecaeffect.com/2021/07/climate-change-and-resource-depletion.html<br />Seems to be a standard comment here.<br />MarcusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-42721203178108594452023-03-28T14:36:00.292+02:002023-03-28T14:36:00.292+02:00I think that climate change is more or less a cove...I think that climate change is more or less a cover story for the real problem, resource depletion. <br /><br />King Hubbert modeled US conventional oil production in the 1950's. He predicted a peak for maybe 1970 and was correct by within a year or two. Then came the North Slope of Alaska, a shadow of its peak. Fracking as a gimmick is kind of played out, I guess.<br /><br />Industrial Civilization, like every other system in the universe, I guess, is subject to the law of the minimum, ie, a shortfall in any one critical component of a system, results in system failure. I don't know if anyone can accurately model its implications, as they might apply to our present situation. But I do think that a Seneca Cliff type event is a real possibilty.<br /><br /> davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06024275268896601307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-35571060874612353272023-03-28T01:43:53.193+02:002023-03-28T01:43:53.193+02:00There is one point that puzzles me. The club of ro...There is one point that puzzles me. The club of rome has been telling us for 50 years that resources are not infinite and that we must expect shortages. The published model predicted the future shortage pretty accurately for today. So we are in the exciting phase, and what happens? The topic is changed. Suddenly, it's no longer about the range of resources, but about the climate. And what is the solution? Use fewer resources. Haha.<br />So I suspect that climate change is just a placeholder for the end of the oil age, simply because you can't say the latter without running the risk of exacerbating the problems.<br />You can't leave complex problems to politics? Where politics is only the space left to it by the economy?<br />Let's assume that there is no solution for a mass society if the supply with central resources does not work out. Then, of course, chaos is inevitable, and the only thing the decision-makers can do is to organize the shortage before its time. Only then will they have enough resources to manage the event and ensure their power. They certainly want to avoid the chaos, and the danger of perishing in it.<br /><br />But something completely different? Has anyone read the Pfizerfiles?<br /><br />Mit besten Grüßen aus Berlin von MarcusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-35256217286490274822023-03-27T13:00:34.782+02:002023-03-27T13:00:34.782+02:00Indeed, there is no proof that we are going to col...Indeed, there is no proof that we are going to collapse. But collapses are a normal feature of the history of civilizations, so it seems to be at least likely that ours will not be an exception. On the other hand, I noted in several posts that collapse is often followed by a rebound (the "Seneca Rebound"). So, as I use to say, collapse is not an event, it is a process. As such it can be steered, mitigated, acted upon, and even exploited. It is the cycle of life, as we know from the Lion King :-)Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-42500339544301335472023-03-27T11:56:27.062+02:002023-03-27T11:56:27.062+02:00I'm reasonably close to the science of economi...I'm reasonably close to the science of economics and I believe that you partially misunderstood it.<br /><br />Economic growth going forever is not a dogma, it's just a reasonable simplification of reality, just as other sciences sometimes assume lack of air resistance or unrealistic perfect sphere to simplify calculations. <br /><br />Obviously when the solar system is finally consumed and transformed into economically profitable matter, with most energy from the sun captured (in science fiction- Dyson Sphere) then the growth will stop, but economy and finance needs models for the next fifty years, not five hundred. <br /><br />My cornucopian disagreement with you is not about the growth going literally forever, I "just" think that might of the industrial civ can consume the solar system without collapsing, especially with future AI systems etc.<br /><br />This does not mean that collapse is utterly impossible, but I see more danger in nuclear wars and solar storms (1859, The Carrington Event) than in resource depletion; even you nowadays seem to recognize that there is plenty of solar power that our civ could build.liberty90https://www.blogger.com/profile/10820552619769307434noreply@blogger.com