The Roman Philosopher Lucius Anneaus Seneca (4 BCE-65 CE) was perhaps the first to note the universal trend that growth is slow but ruin is rapid. I call this tendency the "Seneca Effect."
Showing posts with label growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label growth. Show all posts

Sunday, February 12, 2023

The Empire Strikes Back: Down with those Silly Environmental Policies!

I defined this image as "The most amazing graph of the 21st century," and I argued that the rapid inversion of the declining trend of crude oil production is the cause of the US government's currently aggressive foreign policy. But the vagaries of oil production in the US haven't ceased to amaze us. We are now seeing a desperate attempt to keep oil production growing, even at the cost of dumping everything done so far in terms of "green" policies to mitigate climate change and ecosystem disruption. It is a major historical change. 

Sometimes, things change so fast in our world that we are left bewildered at seeing the rapid disappearance of the world we had thought was normal. The Covid pandemic was a case in point. It changed our habits, how we see ourselves and others, and affected our fundamental rights. In less than a couple of years, it propelled us into a "new normal" that became the way things are and have to be. 

The wave of rapid changes is not over. Now, change is sweeping through energy and environmental policies, and not in a good direction. A recent article in "The Epoch Times" reports about a document approved by the House Natural Resources Committee with the title, "GOP-Led House Panels Shift Gears, Go Full Throttle for Domestic Energy Production." It is a true tsunami poised to propel us into another kind of "new normal." Here are some excerpts.

"Republicans made it clear that many initiatives passed under the Biden administration promoting electric vehicles, carbon capture, green energy, and environmental protection are on the proverbial chopping block.

"Among the proposals that will dominate the committee’s and its subsidiary panels’ agendas in the coming months are bills prohibiting restrictions on hydraulic fracking without congressional approval, expanding natural gas exports, repealing the IRA’s Green House Reduction Fund, and amending the Clean Air, Toxic Substances Control, Solid Waste Disposal, and National Gas Tax acts.

"Within the tranche of proposed legislation on the committee’s “unleashing American energy agenda” are bills calling for permitting reform, promoting development of “critical minerals,” and prohibiting the import of Russian uranium. 

"Current energy policies not only degrade the economy but imperil national security... We are exporting wealth from here in the United States, many times to our adversaries, because of a not-in-my-backyard mentality,

"Grijalva’s proposed amendment to incorporate a statement that the impacts of climate change be weighed in evaluating proposals was defeated on a 21–15 party-line tally."

And more like that.

Let's try to unravel this set of ideas. We can start with the key sentence: "prohibiting restrictions on hydraulic fracking." It means that the Republicans want to ramp up the production of natural gas and crude oil at all costs, and the hell with "Climate Change" and "environmental protection." These silly ideas came from those scientists who think they deserve a salary just because they spend their time scaring the public with invented catastrophes that never arrive. Who do they think they are? 

The Republicans seem to be riding a wave of public opinion that sees environmental policies in a bad light. Indeed, most people were never enthusiastic about making sacrifices for a nebulous entity called "the environment." But, today, the public's trust in science has taken a considerable beating from the Covid crisis, and it is becoming more and more difficult to convince people to act in the name of a "science" that they see with increasing suspicion. Independently of individual opinions, when things get tough, most people tend to agree that there is no space for niceties and luxuries, as environmental policies are usually perceived. 

Apart from dumping regulations, neither the Republicans nor the general public seem to be able to see the glaring contradiction in what they are planning to do. Increasing oil and gas production means that more oil and gas will be used and exported. But once oil is produced and burned, it is gone. Then, the country will be impoverished, having lost some of its natural resources. (Unless, of course, you think that oil and gas are an infinite resource.... and that's precisely what the US elites think.). This is a classic case of hastening one's own doom, but it is normal. It happens all the time. 

Besides, there is an even more worrisome point in these ideas. Can fracking production be actually increased? The sentence about prohibiting restrictions on hydraulic fracking actually smacks of desperation. During the past 10 years, an incredibly rapid increase in oil production was obtained without the need for such a radical legislation. So why is it needed now? It may be a way for senators to show their determination, but it is more likely that the fracking industry is in trouble, unable to recover after the drop caused by the Covid pandemic. 

Let's see some recent data from "Peak Oil Barrel." 

You see that the US oil production collapsed in 2020 due to the Covid epidemic. Then, it restarted growing but has yet to return to the record level of Nov 2019. During the years of fast growth, up to 2019, it had grown more than 1 million barrels per year, a nearly 10% increase. It was a rate never seen during the whole history of US oil production. But, during the current recovery, it has declined to about half that value. The forecasts see a further reduction to nearly zero growth so that the 2019 record may not be breached before December 2024 -- if ever. Note also how production went down for about 6 months before the Covid shock. Something was rotten in Texas already by then. 

What's happening? One thing is clear: the US oil industry can no longer sustain the incredible growth rate that had been the rule up to 2019. We may well be close to the second (and final) peak of oil production in the US (as also noted by others)

So, as in the old Chinese malediction, we live in interesting times. An empire that does not expand is a dead empire, and the American Empire needs energy to keep its expansion going. A war, after all, is just a continuation of the economy by other means: the market is the battlefield, and "programmed obsolescence" is assured by the competitor's products. During the past decade, the US empire has accumulated considerable economic potential through the "fracking miracle." This potential has been turned in large part into a military potential. It is now time to dissipate this potential; it is the primary reason for what we see in the world nowadays. It is a concept explored in depth by Ingo Piepers.

The American elites understand what's happening. Hence, the effort to prop up the oil industry at all costs. So, will the Empire succeed in surviving for some more years? The current war is not being fought on the battlefield but on the oil fields. The side that runs out of fuel first will be the loser. 

In the long run, anyway, the winner will also lose: at some moment, production by fracking will not just decline: it will crash in one of the most brutal Seneca Cliffs ever witnessed by humankind. But do not despair: humankind has been thriving before the age of oil, and it may well do the same afterward. It will just be a very different world for those who will survive to see it. 

Below is a post I published in 2015, where I compared the growth of shale oil production to that of cod fishing in the Atlantic. In both cases, producers were blinded by a false sensation of abundance generated by production growth. They didn't realize that the faster you extract it, the faster you run out of it. 

The shale oil "miracle": how growth may falsely signal abundance. 

Originally published on "Cassandra's Legacy,  February 24, 2015

Oil production (all liquids in barrels per day) in the US and Canada. (From Ron Patterson's blog). Does this rapid growth indicate that the resources are abundant and that all the worries about peak oil are misplaced? Maybe not...

Sometimes, we use a simple metric to evaluate complex systems. For instance, a war is a complex affair where millions of people fight and struggle. However, in the end, the final result is a yes/no question: either you win or you lose. Not for nothing, General McArthur said once that "there is no substitute for victory."

Think of the economy: it is an immense and complex system where millions of people work, produce, buy, sell, and make or lose money. IEventually the final result is a simple yes/no question: either you grow, or you don't. And what McArthur said about war can be applied to the economy: "there is no substitute for growth."

But complex systems have ways of behaving, surprising you that can't be reduced to a simple yes/no judgment. Both victory and growth may create more problems than they solve. Victory may falsely signal a military might that doesn't exist (think of the outcome of some recent wars....), while growth may signal an abundance that is just not there.

Look at the figure at the beginning of this post (from Ron Patterson's blog). It shows the oil production (barrels/day) in the US and Canada. The data are in thousand barrels per day for "crude oil + condensate," and the rapid growth for the past few years is primarily due to tight oil (also known as "shale oil") and oil from tar sands. If you follow the debate in this field, you know that this growth trend has been hailed as a great result and as the definitive demonstration that all worries about oil depletion and peak oil were misplaced.

Fine. But let me show you another graph, the US landings of North Atlantic Cod up to 1980 (data from Faostat).

Doesn't it look similar to the data for oil in the US/Canada? We can imagine what was being said at the time; "new fishing technologies dispel all worries about overfishing" and things like that. It is what was said, indeed (see Hamilton et al. (2003)).

Now, look at the cod landings data up to 2012 and see what happened after the great burst of growth.

This doesn't require more than a couple of comments. The first is to note how overexploitation leads to collapse: people don't realize that by pushing for growth at all costs, they are destroying the very resource that creates growth. This can happen with fisheries just as with oil fields. But, also note that we have another case of a "Seneca Cliff," a production curve where the decline is much faster than growth. As the ancient Roman philosopher said, "The road to ruin is rapid." And this is exactly what we could expect to happen with tight oil.

Friday, August 26, 2022

The Limits to Growth 50 years later: an Indispensable Book


A Comment by Bernard Paquito on the New Report of the club of Rome, "Limits and Beyond" 
Reproduced with the kind permission of the author

Bardi & Pereira did a great job with this collective book: Limits and Beyond. Authors have different backgrounds, cultures, point of views about the Limits to Growth consequences and perspectives.

For instance, the first chapter is absolutely necessaryBardi presents a brief history of this report, and most importantly a history of critics and misinterpretations (e.g., market vs physical factors in economy).

Other authors highlighted that the original messages of the LtG book were misunderstood: “the message of overshoot caused by decision delays was not picked up by the Limits to Growth readership”. They remind us that the most important variable of Limits to Growth was the well-being of people and not the gross domestic product.

Dennis Meadow’s chapter presents a short answer for the most frequent questions about the Limits to Growth, e.g., How can the world’s population be reduced ? Does World3 take wars into account ?

Also, a chapter (written by Gianfranco Bologna) presents the links between Limits to Growth readership, understanding and the current model of Planetary Boundaries, Safe Operating Space and Doughnut Economics.

Other chapters introduce the authors' personal experience and reception of Limits to Growth in South Africa, Asian countries or soviet bloc.

According to the Conway’s law, Pezeshki explains the roles of empathy (at different levels in a system) to provoke social changes.

Finally, Gaya Herrington summarize his work about the checking of Limits to Growth with current data and presents a nuanced vision of tested scenarios. She performed an updated World3 modelization with following variables: population, fertility, mortality, pollution, industrial output, food, services, non-renewable natural resources, human welfare and ecological footprint. Her discussion is brilliant.

If we do not change the framing through which we formulate the questions and their responses there is a little chance that the general orientation of our relationships (among humans, with life, with time) could change.” Carlos Alvarez Pereira p259

Sunday, June 5, 2022

Once Upon a Time There Were Five Young Scientists. The "Limits to Growth" 50 years later

When I look at the historic photo of this group of five young passionate and enthusiastic scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (1), I feel from their attitude the same eagerness and determination that I see in the eyes of my children who are around their same age today. In 1972, these five fellows truly expected that their report on “The Limits to Growth” would trigger a change in the development of humanity and motivate global leaders to act in protecting future generations. Their dream was cut short. Although the book became very popular around the planet with more than 30 millions readers, it was largely criticized by politicians and renown economists. The effort to bury this scientific work turned out to be so successful that the discredit lasted for more than thirty years. But the debate is still not over! In June 2022, we are celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of the Meadows Report, which is finally considered as the most influential environmental book and a major publication from the twentieth century. How did these young scientists go through this turmoil?

The tale started in 1968, with the intuition of an Italian industrialist, Aurelio Peccei, that the problems of humankind could not be solved individually, that there is an interrelation between different factors, and it is essential to apprehend their interactions. He looked for a scientific method to encompass all this complexity into one unique system and be able to propose possible evolutions for our societies.

He founded the Club of Rome to gather experts from different fields and investigate together this problematic. After a couple of years, the Volkswagen Foundation announced to the Club that they would no longer provide financial support because there was no clear methodology for this research and no positive outcome expected.

This is when the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) came into the picture. A team of scientists under the leadership of Dennis Meadows proposed to utilize a new computer-based simulations tool that was developed to analyze complex systems, establish correlations, and describe the evolution of time. This proposal from the MIT saved the Club of Rome and kicked off the study so anticipated by Peccei.

The team used the system dynamics to model the world’s economy and establish twelve prospective scenarios towards the end of the 21st century. The reference scenario was called “business-as-usual”, meaning that we don’t make any political intervention, we keep doing business in a free market, and continue the human expansion with no restrictions. In this scenario, the simulation showed major disruptions in the first half of the new century. The other eleven scenarios were contemplating the impact of extrapolations on several factors: resources, population, industrial output, pollution, and food production. To avoid the general collapse from the reference scenario, government interventions and controls were required, particularly on population (birth rate = death rate) and industrial capital stabilization (investment = depreciation). As you can see in the summary table below, the scenarios 10 & 11 reaching equilibrium would have required interventions in all the parameters, which was difficult to swallow for the proponents of the free market. Detailed explanations and graphs about each scenario can be read in the initial report and its following editions.

There are a few principles that are guiding these results. I will highlight only a couple of them that I appreciated very much.

First principle, the “Tragedy of the Commons”, from Garrett Hardin (1968). This is a very simple problem that we can experiment in our everyday life. It goes against the principles of the neoclassical economists who consider that the pursuit of our self-interest will lead to the maximum common good. Hardin said “No”, as it leads more to the destruction of the resource being exploited. He took as a model a community of shepherds: the common good is the land, a beautiful grassy meadow ideal for cows who are fans of grazing. Each farmer knows that he must take care of the land and not overuse it, but at the same time he is looking at his shepherd neighbor, who could easily be his best friend. Each one has an individual interest to make more money, and particularly more money than the other neighbor, because it is important to demonstrate who is the boss in the village. Then, a muted competition is engaged between the shepherds, with vibrant and victorious family debates on ambitious expansion plans during dinners in their respective home-sweet-home, followed by egoist dreams during the night in the bed, and false smiles between the men during the day on the field. Hypocrisy and pride spread out in the village while each farmer decides to put more cows on the land to be richer than his friend. And the story goes on like always until desperation hits. Eventually, self-interest destroys life and community, the parcel becomes arid and parched due to overuse, tears flow on family’s faces for the loss of the generous and nourishing land. Afterwards, we hear, in the streets and in the pubs, the whispering voices of the dwellers complaining about this shameful catastrophe, whereas these smarty-pants would have behaved identically or even worse in similar circumstances. This drama in the countryside repeats itself in the cities in the same manners. A corresponding tragedy is at the source of traffic jams which are generated by our self-interest to fight our own corner even if it jeopardizes the day for all of us.

Second principle, our difficulty to apprehend the effect of an exponential phenomenon. We are used to figuring out the impact of linear growth, so we have enough time to react and take appropriate countermeasures. However, we are completely blind towards the tsunami impact of an exponential growth. Out of the few examples taken in the Meadows report illustrating the dangerous consequences of this inability, I like the one of the lily pond (see below a nice explanation from website). Skeptical people will not believe the reality of a problem until they see it at scale, which is a devastating weakness in an exponential situation, because when the crisis becomes visible, it is already too late to react (here the last day of the month!).

Third principle, an important element of complexity that we have a hard time  anticipating, is the feedback effect which can amplify or dampen any perturbation. The following example keeps us in the countryside (without the shepherds). It has several names, one of them being the “foxes and rabbits” model. It is extremely simplified and does not describe actual life, but it is very helpful in illustrating the meaning of feedbacks in complex system dynamics. The model shows that the population of rabbits and foxes is stabilized in the long run thanks to the interaction of positive and negative feedbacks, but the number of each population is never at equilibrium. It is always oscillating with sharp up and down which fairly represents the dynamic of complex systems. If there was no fox, the number of rabbits would go up exponentially, and if there was no rabbit, the number of fox would drop to zero due for starvation.

The "Limits to Growth" applies these principles to their system dynamics. For instance, the growth of the population is exponential with positive feedback loops (“the larger the population, the more babies will be born each year.”) which can be moderated through a negative feedback loop of deaths, depending on the rate of each one. This is the same for Industrial output with investment (capital added per year) as positive feedback loop, and depreciation (capital discarded per year) as the negative one.

I found some clear explanations about these principles, and others, in “The Limits of Growth Revisited” (2011) from Ugo Bardi. This book is particularly interesting because the author dedicates several chapters on how the Meadow’s report was perceived globally. This is the most comprehensive compilation of positive and, for the most part, negative evaluations. Effectively, after a few positive and constructive initial judgments, progressively the report gave birth to a large and uncontrollable outcry. Political and economist leaders lashed out on the report without any restraint. In order not to fall into an exasperated state, I will not relay here all the wretched comments that you can find in Ugo’s book, such as “a piece of irresponsible nonsense”, “lack of humility”, “garbage in, garbage out”, “a projection for disaster”, “starvation specter”, “the MIT Malthusians”, “doomsday data” ... Just one example to read is the article published in the New York Times on April 2nd 1972, from Peter Passels, Marc Roberts and Leonard Ross. The tone and the argumentation are a good example of the reaction from authorities and non-scientist representatives. One important input provided by economists, and not considered in the report, is about price, as a variable which will adjust the utilization of resources over time and reduce depletion impact.

Many of the denigrations were using mistaken statements and fallacious accusations. Some of the most common criticism utilized over and over by analysts were that the study wrongly estimated that some important mineral resources would run out before the end of the twentieth century or that the world would collapse around 2000! It is nowhere in the report, but all commentators passed around the same erroneous message without checking its relevancy.

One reason given is that politicians and economists could not stand that scientists give a voice on the governance of the world. It is out of their domain of responsibility; they are not legitimate. I guess it is overstated, but I got confused when hearing some of speeches from politicians. For instance, Ronald Reagan, one of the most virulent opponents to the report, who howled with the wolves, and stated in a public talk on January 21st, 1985: “We believed then and now, there are no limits to growth and human progress, when men and women are free to follow their dreams. And we were right.”

The Bell Jar had rung and the proposals from Meadow’s report ended up hidden in the back of the drawers of our general blindness. Growth became the creed of all politicians for several decades.

Fortunately, this is not the end of the tale.

In recent years, the indisputable recognition of the climate crisis gave to the report a new lease of life. Numerous studies have been published showing the accuracy of the trends estimated initially by the Meadows team (i.e., Matthew Simmons, Graham M. Turner, Charles A. S. Hall & John W. Day, Gaya Herrington...), and confirmed that ironically the basic scenario (Scenario 1 “Business-as-usual”) is aligned with current trends in all the key factors applied in the system dynamics model.

Even amongst the most vocal economical adversaries of the report, such as personalities like Robert Solow or Milton Friedman, one of them, William D. Nordhaus (Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2018), did a turnabout (see detailed review in Ugo Bardi’s book). In 1992, he recognized the importance of the report, but kept one criticism on the lack of importance given to the “technological progress” whose impact is considered only as delaying the inevitable collapse but could not help to avoid it. I recommend his conference in 2018 for the award ceremony of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, where he is proposing, amongst other actions, to apply price increase policies to fight against climate change.   

I also found it interesting to see the growing legitimacy of the report through its subsequent editions in parallel to the increasing number of international conferences on environmental problems. Although the chairman of the first UN conference in Stockholm in 1972, Maurice Strong, was profoundly influenced by the Meadows report, nothing happened afterwards: zero international event between this first UN Conference and the Earth Summit in 1992. At this conference in Rio, George W. Bush, the successor of Ronald Reagan, was provocative in repeating the same politician message: “Twenty years ago, some spoke of the Limits to Growth, and today we realized that growth is the engine of change and the friend of the environment.” Challenging the economic growth was still considered as a sacrilege in that time. The UN Stockholm+50 conference taking place this June will tell us if we have been able to go beyond this hurdle.

Ugo Bardi and Carlos Alvarez Pereira led a new edition for the fiftieth anniversary titled: “Limits and Beyond - 50 years on from The Limits to Growth, what did we learn and what’s next?” that has be published just on time for the Stockholm+50 conference.

The intention of these young scientists was not to predict the future. More reasonably, they were expecting that, by warning the world about the risk of civilization collapse, their research would offer new perspectives, would provide valuable data to influential people, and encourage them to thereby take initiatives to modify the trends and build a bright future for next generations. They were convinced that their report would give the readers optimistic perspectives and reasons to believe that these planetary problems were totally manageable and could be solved with applicable solutions. 

In fact, their recommendations from scenarios 10 & 11 at “Equilibrium” are everywhere in the news today: recycling to reduce our dependency on nonrenewable resources; better product design for durability and repair and less discarding because of obsolescence; adoption of less-polluting technologies, methods and materials; development of sustainable agriculture to avoid more soil erosion and pollution due to intensive food production; shift from maximizing manufacturing and sales of products to fostering human development with priority on education, health care, and cultural activities; Diverting capital to making food affordable for everyone...

So what happened to these young scientists? I have been interested to look at their individual personality, as if they were somewhat part of my family, I mean the family of those who are worried but persistent in seeking to build a livable place for the generations to come.

Donella Meadows

Donella Meadows is not the first one for being a woman, it would just be elegant but not fair. She is at the top because - we owe credit where credit’s due - she has been the lead author of the report and I believe that the impact and the quality of this publication would not have been this high without her writing and expressive talent.

From 1972 until her death in 2001 she taught in the Environmental Studies program at Dartmouth College. She was closely linked to the nascent ecologist movement and was communicating with her students about alternative non consumerists lives. This is outstanding and consistent with the conclusion of the report, but I would not be surprised that malicious people had utilized this overlapping to discredit her legitimacy. She seems to have been quite optimistic on the possibility to develop a democratic society that would provide equal wealth to all citizens. 

To preserve the memory of this author, the Donella Meadows Institute (DMI) has set up a website collecting many documentations. It shows clearly how active Donella has remained during all of her life, continuing to teach, and write several books as well as more than 700 weekly articles called “The Global Citizen”.

In one of her letter, she talked about the dream house: “You can’t look at that perfect house without imagining the perfect family living inside. Big house equals happiness. They’ve been selling us that dream for decades.” The dream house size was increasing constantly after each decade, from 1200 square feet in the 1940s to more than 2000 sqft in the 1990s. Why? Donella has the answer: “Just for making us dissatisfied with what we’ve got.”

In one interview, Jorgen Randers made a beautiful tribute to Donella talking about “her warm heart and her faith in humanity. She is inherently wise and good to make positive things”.

One quote from Donella that I really love and would make it mine if I could: “The scarcest resource is not oil, metals, clean air, capital, labour, or technology. It is our willingness to listen to each other, and learn from each other, and to seek the truth rather than seek to be right.” We should pacify the relationships between scientists, economists, and politicians. There is no benefit for humanity to refuse cooperation, the truth is hidden in the interstices between the expertise of each discipline.

Dennis Meadows

Dennis Meadows is the former husband of Donella. He is recognized as the leader of the MIT scientific team who completed all the studies for the report. There were 16 members in total and their average age was around 26 years old. Dennis is still the most active representative of the team in medias and there are many interviews available online to listen to his views on our world today. He looks like someone who became stoic after a long-life experience and wants to enjoy his remaining days without expecting too much from his peers. He is proud to have developed games to help people understand how systems thinking (such as systems dynamics or mental models) work. I hope Dennis will not complain as I took the liberty to reproduce below a simple example of one of his games (Arms Crossed), just to give you an idea and maybe make you curious to learn more about these games.

He likes games because they are good tools to change the way that people think. Thanks to the experience, the players will think differently. It is far more efficient than just talking which is never good enough to convince someone. Nothing better than experimentation. Dennis is educating people living around him in the New Hampshire. He is really applying the principle of stoicism philosophy such as educating with practical exercises, trying to improve the world just within his community or having reasonable expectations.

He has a few other dearest arguments repeated in different instances, which I feel are very persuasive. Let me summarize some of them below:

He is not a fan of sustainable development and more in favor of what he calls “resilient development”. I think what he wants to say is that we will face so many environmental calamities in the future that we must be prepared to live in survival development mode to collectively overcome these difficulties.

His is very critical towards politicians and he would like scientists to be more present in the political field which is far too dominated by those who hold a legal background.

Dennis’ view on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology is that they started first with what was politically acceptable and then tried to trace out scientific consequences, whereas the Meadows report was looking first at what was scientifically known to simulate afterwards political consequences. For instance, the population growth or the economic GDP levels are exogenous to IPCC study, although these factors have an enormous impact on climate change.

The global problems, such as climate change or pandemic, affect everyone, but they require global actions with only long-term benefits. So, if someone focuses their actions on these global issues, they will not see any results and will be discouraged. On the other hand, there are universal problems, such as water or air pollution, soil erosion, flooding, deforestation, which can be managed locally. Each one of us should focus on these issues, as we can solve them here and now, get quick return and be enthusiastic about it.

Jay W. Forrester

Jay was recognized as a key scientist in the development of the computer industry. He created a few inventions which were essential to the development of our digital world. Jay worked on computer simulations of the dynamic of complex systems and their interconnectivities. His first book, “Urban Dynamics” (1969), analyzed several urban development factors such as population, housing, and industry, and how their fluctuation would affect the development of a city. During a presentation of his results at a conference in Italy, he met Aurelio Peccei who invited him to a Club de Rome session to be organized in Bern in 1970.

Jay remembers this session as being on the verge of seeing the Club end. This was the day the Volkswagen Foundation decided to cut off funding: “We were very close to no project at all!”. In the afternoon, he convinced the participants to come to MIT and spend a couple of weeks to better understand his computing systems. Jay was so excited about this initiative that he spent the whole flight back from Rome to the US drafting a model of the world evolution following the method of system dynamics. He filled up so many pages that he used the empty seats around him to lay down the model which lengthened more than 8 meters eventually. It became the seed of the model to build all the scenarios of the “Limits to Growth” report.

Until he passed away in 2016, Jay remained an advocate of system dynamics and the complexity for humans to apprehend their evolution. The computer used for the Meadows report simulations is called World3 and it is still available to reproduce the scenarios, see Systemic Alternatives website here.

Jorgen Randers

Jorgen joined MIT to study a PhD in physics, but after just a few months he realized that it was not what he wanted to do. One day, he attended a talk from Jay on Urban dynamics. He went to him afterwards and simply said: “here I am, and I would like to work with you”. This is how that he got engaged in the team.

For ten years following the report’s publication, Jorgen kept trying to convince people with no success. Eventually he gave up. I believe that this failure is at the source of his pessimism. In 2012, he wrote his own book: “2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”. He anticipated that we would face rising inequities, unemployment, poverty, extreme weather. For him, social collapse is more likely to happen than ecological collapse. His main recommendations are to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy and particularly solar energy for which he is a strong supporter; to develop sustainable agriculture and decrease meat consumption; to support poor countries in reaching a higher development model; to establish more equity and make rich people contribute more financially; and to lower the global population.

He also poses a sensitive question about our governance: can we implement necessary long-term actions when our political programs are mainly driven by the short term? Can we impose constraints to our citizens who don’t want to reconsider their current standard of life? Overall, Jorgen seems to be the most disillusioned scientist of the Meadows team.

William W. Behrens III

The beginning for Bill is a bit similar to that of Jorgen. He was at MIT when he heard about the proposal to create a research team on system dynamics. He ran to Dennis’ office and said, “this is fascinating, I would like to be in the team”. Dennis replied that he was the first candidate, so he was in! Bill is the most discreet member. After the publication of the report, he followed Donella and Dennis to Dartmouth College, but after a few months he decided to change his way of living and retire from our consumerist society. He bought a wood house in a forest in Vermont, without electricity, telephone, with only bio agriculture and animals.

In 1995, he founded the renewable division of the Green store in Belfast, Maine. Then, after 2003, he co-founded companies to design and build solar panel for houses in all the New England region.

He looks like a very positive and humble person. It is just enough to look at the website of his company Revision Energy to see how passionate he and his team seem to be to work for the deployment of solar energy.

The Tale of Mobility

The automotive industry benefited greatly from the rapid growth of the world’s population since the 1970s. I could not find a graph showing the increasing volume of vehicles in operations in the world, so I estimated that the expansion went from around 100 million units in the middle of the last century to 1.7 billion today. The industry is expecting further increases in the next decades. An indicator exists to measure the number of vehicles per 1,000 habitants, which managers in the automotive sector use to justify investments in specific countries. For example, they will compare India at 44 vehicles per 1,000 habitants to USA at 816 and expect a huge potential for business development. We are in a vicious circle, because the expansion of vehicles in operation will require new roads infrastructure and will encourage further urbanism expansions.

However, there are social forces which are going in the opposite direction. For instance, Sophie Howe, the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, is behind the decision taken by the Welsh Government to scrap the proposal to build a motorway south of Newport that would have relieved the traffic on the main M4 highway. She justified this position by saying: “people in Wales are used to using their cars, even for short distances. Building new roads just perpetuates that old model. We’ve got to find a way of breaking that cycle.”

Citizens are also more active in condemning big projects which are either unnecessary or getting out of control with huge waste of both time and money. Many of these programs are in the mobility domain, such as rail, highways, bridges which are never finished, or even airports (Berlin Brandenburg Airport, Notre-Dame-des-Landes in France, the Castellón airport in Spain which has never been used and received the local nickname of the “first pedestrian airport in the world”!).

There is a weird term to nominate this kind of projects: “boondoggle”. Its origin is as fancy as the word itself: either from Tagalog, an Austronesian language commonly spoken in the Philippines, or from Ozark English, spoken by several Native American tribes, or from a 19th century American pioneer or even from a Roosevelt Troop of Boy Scouts! In any case, I would prefer us to concentrate our efforts on projects which are necessary, useful, and providential. Jorgen Randers proposed that society take the lead and regulate capitalism by allocating a portion of its resources to projects which are both profitable and beneficial for society. For instance, tax carbon on petrol vehicles to boost sustainable mobility investments, incentives on houses equipped with solar panels, or the expansion of local green hydrogen hubs (production and refueling stations).

But what kind of tale is this one? Is it the weak citizen “David” fighting against the strong “Goliath” corporation? Or is it another illustration of the tragedy of commons, where the rich, the poor, the master, and the servant, are all acting for their selfish interest using the common good just as an excuse for their confrontations? This trait of human personality should be carefully considered by the urban designers of our future smart cities. There will be so many common areas, such as public spaces, shared mobility, open offices, or multiples sensors, that it will be necessary to ensure a collective responsibility to avoid the deterioration of these premises.

The common areas will be protected only if they are respected by people who will care for them. We should feel guilty if we are not respectful with the commons. I know that it can be despicable to consider that respect is based on the fear (according to Albert Camus), but we cannot ignore it. I believe the same is happening today regarding our relationship with nature. In the past, the countryside and the backwoods were scary and adventurous, particularly during the night. This fear was giving us a sense of respect to the environment. The development of urbanism took us away from this emotion. We are missing something here. We should learn again this feeling of wonder and astonishment in front of the mystery of nature.

Arthur Rackham is an exceptional English illustrator of fantasy literature. His art reminds us of how much we were impressed and scared by the elements of the countryside. He takes us in a fairytale wonderland where nature is intensely wild, full of secrets and impenetrable depths. A marvelous collection of Rackham’s work is reproduced in this video with hundreds of illustrations. 

The relation between nature and fantasy leads us to an intriguing case in the literary history. It is about Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s passion for spiritualism, to the point that towards the end of his life he gave credibility to a set of photos taken by young girls showing fairies and gnomes into the countryside. Conan Doyle believed there was something in nature beyond our normal reality, something supernatural. He said that if the existence of these fairies would be true, it would "mark an epoch in human thought". He was hoping that something unexpected could happen to transform our too much materialistic world. This affair, named the “Cottingley Fairies”, from the village where it happened in the 1920s, became a worldwide scandal with never-ending debates about the truth behind these images. We had to wait until the early 1980s for the two young girls, now old ladies, to confess that the photos were faked, that they were using cardboard cutouts of fairies. The creator of the famous detective, Sherlock Holmes, had been lured by passion at the end of his life! I have a tenderness for this writer. I respect him very much for his poetic aspiration and his faith in the mysteries of nature. 

But, like the unexpected end of a ghost story, the two women ended up in disagreement. Yes, all the other photos were hoax, but not the last one! One of them claimed the last one was genuine, and the fairy was not fake! I leave it up to you to make your own judgement on that one, you can find the photo below. As a matter of fact, you might have already noticed this curious appearance. If you look closely at the header of this article, it seems that the fairy in the photo introduced herself into the life of the Meadows team, likely to give them power, confidence, and relief. This is the proof, if we ever needed one, that nature would always remain generous and magical.

(1) Actually, of the five, four were indeed young scientists, around 30 years old. But Jay Forrester, (second from left) was 54, and already professor at MIT

Sunday, January 16, 2022

The Saga of Crude Oil. An Epic Story told by Douglas Reynolds

The "bell curve" of oil production has been popularized together with the concept of "peak oil," the point of the curve where the global crude oil production reaches its maximum, just before starting its irreversible decline. There is something universal in this curve that may describe much more than just the output of the oil industry. Have you ever tried to look at the curve in narrative terms? If you did, you may have noticed that it describes a typical heroic saga. The hero starts as a young hopeful, grows to be successful in his quest, then faces decline in old age. That's the way the universe moves and it is not a coincidence that Douglas Reynolds chose the title of "An Energy Odyssey," linking to Ulysses' saga, for his recent book on the world cycle of peak oil. 

Every civilization has its founding saga. It is the story of a hero, or a group of heroes, who manage to overcome enormous difficulties, succeed in their task, and then fade slowly, enjoying the fruits of their efforts. The Sumerians had the story of Gilgamesh, the Greeks the Iliad and the Odyssey, Medieval Europe had Dante's comedy, and there were many others. 

What about us? We do not really have a saga that defines our civilization, except rather brutal ones that involve the bombing to smithereens of the enemies of democracy. Perhaps it is because our society is unlike any of the past ones: it was not created by heroes, but it grew over the availability of cheap and abundant sources of energy that no society ever had in the past: fossil fuels

So, maybe it is there that we find our founding saga: exactly there, with those dark things extracted out of the ground that brought to us wealth over anything that the wildest dreams could imagine. It is a saga that has something in common with that of the Volsunga, where the hero, Sigurd, kills the dragon Fafnir and obtains his underground treasure. 

If crude oil is the protagonist of our saga, the peak oil cycle has a certain narrative flavor. As in old literary sagas, we have the growth of the hero, his success at the peak, and then his decline in old age. Crude oil is at the peak of its cycle and now its decline is starting. This story is not something that we'll read in a book, or hear sung by a bard. We will experience it as protagonists. The walls of Troy have been breached and what's going to happen to us? As for many ancient sagas, this one has a dark aspect: the protagonists may not survive the challenge.  

Perhaps it was with these concepts in mind that Douglas Reynolds chose the title of "Energy Odissey" for his recent book on the cycle of the world's crude oil production, linking to Ulysses' ancient saga. 

Reynolds has been teaching at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, and he has been active in the field of oil depletion. Those of us who have been involved in this kind of study know very well his contributions, especially on the correlation of oil depletion and the fall of the Soviet Union, summarized in his 2016 book "Cold War Energy: The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Union

With "Energy Odyssey," Reynolds summarizes a whole career of research in this field. The result is a true saga: the book covers a wide range of elements of the story, including some correlations that are not usually made: we read about Pyramids, Aztec Gods, Kachina dolls, Nordic Gods, falconry, the Babel story, Moby Dick, the Wizard of Oz, and much, much more. 

It is difficult to summarize this book. Let me just propose you an excerpt, then you may decide to read it yourself. Or, you may contact the author (ask me in the comments for his email).


From the Introduction of "Energy Odyssey" by Douglas Reynolds.

The idea of the Iliad and the Odyssey is that of literature and history. That is, these books are an oral tradition of explaining a story generation to generation. And since there really was conflict and war surrounding the city of Troy, these stories are based on a history. Instead of considering history as a science, and literature as a humanity, the ancients were more convoluted or maybe they simply had the requirement for interchangeability in the day. That is, history was literature and literature was history. Or another way of saying this is that The Iliad and The Odyssey were the Freakonomics of their day. The genres were not so much confused as they were integrated in order to be able to create education for the common man or woman or human, often called “man” for convenience.

It is an interesting concept of having history and literature so close to each other. It reminds one of the difference between rhetoric and oratory. In the Greek tradition, the difference had to do with court cases and the law compared to argumentation. Oratory would try to win this or that case kind of like an ancient version of the television show “Suites” and where it was all in the winning of the case rather than what is right and what is wrong as being important. Rhetoric was more of a higher elevated philosophical discourse. It had to do with getting at a deeper truth that eludes one. The difference between rhetoric and oratory reminds one of the sciences and especially the economic social sciences of coming at the truth where one can use inductive reasoning or deductive reasoning and where the risk averse nature of the profession tends to emphasize induction over deduction even though a truer and deeper insight requires deduction more than is thought. What each reader may have to do then is to plug the ears of your preconceived notions and sail by the sirens of alternative argumentation so that you don’t sail your boat into the rocky shores of excessive disputation.

One of the interesting story lines in the various plots of Odysseus is not so much what Odysseus goes through or how he is affected by his travels or how he steps up to meet different challenges, but rather the idea that the city of Troy actually takes in the Trojan Horse in the first place. On the surface, one has to be surprised at the naiveite of the Trojans. Did they not know this could be a trick? Or maybe in a way the literary story is showing that all conflicts involve people with a weak link or vulnerable under side and that that is the point of the story. Maybe even our own technology has a vulnerable side that a Trojan Horse can undo.

What is interesting about Odysseus and the Iliad and the Odyssey is that the world too is taking such a journey. And after the Trojan War, especially, the journey is fraught with adventures and side trips but eventually leads to a resolution of sorts for Odysseus and so to a resolution for the world at large.

Though there are many formidable hardships in regard to energy where the world’s economies will be taken captive and certainly enticed into being devastated on coastal rocks, nevertheless, a realistic perspective of energy and its potential and its hazards can propel a proper expedition to be undertaken. And yet the world may also be taken in by its own Trojan Horse.

This story may have parallels for today’s world’s energy odyssey. For truly the world’s economy is dependent on energy and all the different types of energy determine how the world’s economy will work. Right now, there is a great battle between using fossil fuels and using renewable energy for the world’s economy, and it seems like the tension, rather like that of the Trojan War itself, is a battle for the hearts and minds of the people and where no one is winning the argument. Or, the current Trojan Energy War is not a battle for the hearts and minds of people, but rather a stalemate between the energy consuming economies that want ever more available energy for ever greater economic growth on the one side, and the supplies of energy that by their very nature are either finite or unstable and must eventually reach a limit.

In the Iliad, Odysseus and his Greek city state allies seem to have reached an end and cannot win the battle. Thus seemingly, the force of technology has won the day and there is no more scarcity to inhibit economic growth. But there may be a surprise in store where the stalemate of the battle will break in a most unexpected manner by both sides. It will be the Hubbert Trojan Horse Scenario. The crucial character in this energy odyssey story will be a geologist by the name of M. King Hubbert, and the outcome, though surprising, will be destructive to both those who believe in renewable energy and those who believe in fossil fuel energy as far as how the economy reacts. Just so, M. King Hubbert’s Trojan Horse Scenario is the final takeover of the Scarcity and Growth debate, at least in regard to non renewable natural resources.

Energy Odyssey:
The Hubbert Trojan Horse Scenario
Table of Contents

Introduction: Energy Odyssey: The Journey to Energy Enlightenment
1: Energy Dialectic: Rhetorical Adversity in Energy Philosophy
2: Energy Architecture: The Pyramids of Entropy
3: The Energy Quetzalcoatl: The Serpentine Energy Chain
4: Entropy Subsidy Wizarding: Merlin the Energy Magician
5: En Tech Symphony: Beethoven’s 5th vs. the 6th
6: The Tower of Energy Babel: Rally to Growth and Scatter from Scarcity
7: The Energy Kachina: The Four Seasons of Exploration Balance
8: Energy Novel Similes: Wizard of Oz, Moby Dick & Blood
9: Energy Constitution: American Hamiltonian Shale Oil Utterance
10: The Loki of Energy: The Oil and Gas Enigma
11: Energy Falconry: The Guardianship of OPEC
12: The Texas Sole Energy Ranger: Hi Ho Lithium, Renewables and Away
13: Don King Energy Economics: The City Streets of Electrical Power Grids
14: The Energy Macroeconomy Yin and Yang: The Pangu Inflationary and Stagflationary Effect
15: Energy Gaia: The Mother Earth of Foreshadowings
16: Energy Children: The Blessing of Ganesha and The Hardship in Developing Countries
17: The Eris of Energy: The Discord of the Golden Apple
18: COVID Energy Chess: The Strategic Pandemic Moves
19: The Energy Rasputin: The Demise of The Soviet Union
20: The Romulus and Remus of Energy: Rome’s Crisis of the Third Century
21: The Oracle of Energy Delphi: Determining Prescient Energy Scenarios
22: The Trojan Energy Horse: The Odyssey Continues
23: About the Energy Author: The Energy Muse’s Song